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경제분석/중국경제

[최신] 중국경제 전망 by 중국중앙은행 (분석)

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중국의 주요경제지표 상황입니다.


중국의 GDP 와 물가는 견고한 성장세를 유지하고 있으며 실업률은 4.1%이하로 꾸준히 유지하고 있습니다.



중국의 중앙은행인 중국인민은행 (People's Bank of China) 은 중국경제에 대해 어떠한 전망을 가지고 있으며 예상통화정책 경로에 대해서 분석해 보겠습니다. (2016년1Q 자료)




The global economy will continue its rebalancing for quite some time. The Chinese economy is undergoing structural adjustments and supply-side structural reforms are progressing. Despite the many problems and challenges, the fundamentals supporting sustained growth remain unchanged. The economy is still very resilient, and it has a large potential and fairly large room for policy maneuver. With the potential of the new type of urbanization yet to be fully tapped and the gradual release of the reform dividend, the economy is expected to continue its medium-to-high growth rate.
(출처:중국인민은행)

중국경제가 세계경제로부터 위험요소에 많이 노출되어 있지만 중국경제의 펀더멘털이 중국의 중장기적 성장을 지지하고 있다고 합니다.

With the adoption of a series of reform measures to streamline administrative procedures and to delegate powers to lower-level governments, new growth drivers are emerging and mass entrepreneurship and innovation are booming, while new types of business operations and new sectors and industries are being created. Endogenous drivers are gaining strength in some sectors. Some provinces and some enterprises have maintained gains of double-digit profits.  The development potential of the public- service sector is large, and the consumption and services sector are becoming important drivers for stable economic growth. In Q1 of 2016, the value added of the services sector accounted for 56.9 percent of GDP, up 2.0 percentage points year on year and19.4 percentage points larger that of the secondary industry, due in particular to the rapid growth of the science and technology sectors and IT.
(출처:중국인민은행)

신산업들의 성장세롤 강조하며 특히 공공 서비스, 소비, 서비스 분야의 앞으로의 중요성을 말하고 있습니다. 과학, 기술, IT분야의 발전을 이러한 성장의 동력이라고 생각하는것 같습니다.



 
Nevertheless, given the complex domestic and international situations, there are numerous challenges to economic growth and structural adjustments. Looking at the international environment, the growth of the world economy is sluggish, with momentum in the advanced economies weakening and some emerging economies facing grave situations. Confidence in international financial markets is relatively fragile. There are uncertainties in the pace and intensity of follow-up rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Negative interest rates and other unconventional monetary-policy measures have been adopted by some economies. The spillover effects of these policies and the spill-back from other economies will affect cross-border capital flows, the allocation of major categories of assets, financial markets, and macro-economic
policies.
(출처:중국인민은행)

세계경제의 불확실성, 특히 미국의 기준금리인상에 대한 불확실한 경제방향을 신중히 고려하고 있습니다. 또한 마이너스 금리를 도입한 국가들에 대해서는 부정적인 견해를 보이고 있습니다. 일본과 일부유럽국가들이 이에 포함되는데 제생각으로는 일본을 겨냥한 발언 같습니다.




A lack of supply and an excess of supply exist simultaneously. Furthermore, the growth potential in some new sectors is not fully tapped. The debt ratio is rising rapidly and the risk exposure of both the financial sector and the real sector are on the increase. These structural problems should be resolved through steady progress in the supply-side reform, the development of new growth drivers, and the upgrading of traditional comparative advantages. The five major tasks of removing excess capacity, reducing stocks, deleveraging, reducing costs, and shoring up weak spots are to be implemented in earnest, and markets will be expected to play a decisive role in resource allocations to further boost market confidence.
(출처:중국인민은행)

공급부족현상 과 공급과잉현상이 공존하고 있다고 말하고 있으며 이는 산업별로 성장잠재력의 차이가 큰것을 말하고 있는것으로 풀이됩니다. 금융, 부동산시장의 부채비율이 올라가고 있으며 이러한 문제들은 장기적인 관점에서 공급중심의 개혁을 통해 해결되어야 한다고 강조하고 있습니다.

 
Looking at price developments, price inflation has heightened and future developments need to be followed. Price inflation rebounded to a certain extent in Q1 and attracted widespread attention. Given the sluggish growth of the economy and the prolonged rebalancing of the world economy, as well as the ongoing structural adjustments in China, downward pressures have lingered. Furthermore, growth of money has stabilized and the ratio of pork prices to corn prices is at a historical high but may decline in the future. A continuation of these trends will help maintain general price stability. According to the urban depositors’ survey conducted by the PBC in Q1 of 2016, the future price expectation index was down lightly. It is worth noting that the recent rebound of international commodity prices and the accumulation of macro-economic policies adopted during the previous period may result in price pressures. Furthermore, the rapid growth of housing prices may strengthen inflation expectations in the household sector. The high price levels may add to inflation perceptions. According to the urban depositors’ survey conducted by the PBC in Q1 of 2016, 52.7 percent of the respondents deemed prices to be “high and difficult to accept,” 1.7 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter.  To a large extent, future price movements, which will depend on economic performance and macro-economic policy responses, should be closely watched. 
(출처:중국인민은행)

인플레이션에 관한 내용인데 2016년 1Q까지의 자료이므로 큰 도움이 되지 못합니다.

2016년동안 석유감산합의를 등에업은 유가의 상승과 함께 금을제외한 세계상품시장가격들이 큰폭으로 반등에 성공하였습니다. 





중국의 물가상승률 또한 2016년1월 1.8%대비 높은 상승률을 유지하고 있습니다.(2016년9월제외)


본글은 개인의 의견이 포함되어 있으며 투자의 책임과 판단은 본인에게 있음을 알려드립니다. 정보수집의 과정에서 오류가 생겼을수 있으며 정보오류에 대해 어떠한 책임도 지지않음을 알려드립니다. 투자결정이나 판단을 내릴시 관련홈페이지에서 정확한 정보를 확인후 판단하시기 바랍니다. 


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